This month, alongside the August semiconductor update from Future Horizons, we are happy to share that Future Horizon’s upcoming Industry Update Webinar will be taking place on September 10th, 2024 from 3pm-4pm BST.
The webinar will address the current chip industry outlook, exploring whether the chip market boom has come to an end, and sharing the likely growth scenarios for 2025. For more information about the webinar, and how to register, please click here.
Executive Summary
The overall year-on-year total Semiconductor annualised market growth in June came in at 15.9 percent, down from last month’s 22.6 percent number, and just short of April’s 16.6 percent growth. This was the eighth consecutive month of double-digit annualised growth since the market turned positive in September 2023 and, on the face of it, double-digit growth numbers like these are numbers to die for, but we are still not yet minded uncorking the champagne.
Look into the detail and a different picture emerges.
Excluding memory, the annualised IC market showed a more subdued 6.5 percent growth, down from last month’s 7.5 percent number, reflecting just how strong an impact the memory rebound has been on the overall total market.
Logic maintained its second-place position in June, as the next strongest performer on an annualised basis, growing 10.4 percent vs. 12.2 percent in May and 18.9 percent in April, whilst third-place Micro only grew 5.9 percent, on apar with May’s 5.2 percent growth but well below April’s 9.6 percent numbers.
Finally, Analog ICs, the still worst-performing sector, saw its eighteenth month of negative annualised monthly growth, at minus 1.4 percent, vs. minus 1.3 percent in May and minus 9.2 percent in April. The Analog IC market is now down 16.5 percent in value from its June 2022 high.
June saw Opto continue its downward trajectory starting in November 2023, declining 22.2 percent vs. June 2023, whereas Discretes saw its annualised growth rate fall back to minus 12.3 percent compared with minus 13.8 percent in May and minus 13.0 percent in April.
Several broader industry bellwether sectors are still deeply in recession, with no sign yet of any green shoots of recovery.
To our mind, you cannot have a real and sustainable market recovery whilst these sectors remain weak and, based on current trends, a broader-based industry recovery is unlikely before the first half of 2025.
Read the full report here, and remember to quote ‘Napier’ in the order link to claim your 10% Napier discount.
